Homepage http://drchrisbarnes.co.uk
Dr Chris
Barnes’ Climate Change Papers
1.
Some
very short comments on the relationship between the Sun’s newly discovered
magnetic year, Earth’s climate and Planetary beat hypothesis, by Dr Chris Barnes, Bangor Scientific and
Educational Consultants. E-mail manager @ bsec-wales.co.uk Released into Public Domain without full
reference list April 15th 2013. http://www.drchrisbarnes.co.uk/PBMAG1.HTM
2. North Wales ( Gwynedd) Winter
and Summer Temperatures since 1917
influence of Solar Cycle and prediction of a QBO ( quasi-biennial
oscillation) and definition of its average length, by Dr Chris Barnes, Bangor
Scientific and Educational Consultants, April 2015
Abstract :
Control and feedback mechanisms in the earth climate system are very
briefly discussed. NAO and the QBO are
strong indicators of winter temperature in Wales but are rather more irrelevant
in summer. Thus
a search for a solar link to summer weather is made as an alternative.
This suggests Gwynedd’s recent extremes
of weather could be due to changes in the solar cycle. Analysis of a century’s
worth of UK climate anomaly data suggests that a shorter or longer than average
solar cycle gives rise to an increased incidence of both colder than normal
winters and hotter than average summers
with a very high statistical result for summers. The present work also suggests
that by 2099 Gwynedd will be on average 1.07 C warmer which is closest to the
IPCC B1 scenario and at the VERY LOWEST END of their prediction scale but that
most of the change could be solar induced. It is incredibly instructive to
remove the data for the last and very unusual 14 yearlong solar cycle. If this is done, then the warming slope
changes into a dramatic and very frightening cooling slope showing a change
of -5.7 C in the next 100 years. The data for winter and summer
temperature anomaly also allows extraction of a sinusoidal varying QBO like
component with a length of approximately 24.9 months if one constrains the solar cycle to its
average length. http://www.drchrisbarnes.co.uk/Doc4.HTM
3. A New Method for Medium Term
Temperature Anomaly Forecasting and Climate Prediction by Dr Chris Barnes, Bangor Scientific
and Educational Consultants http://drchrisbarnes.co.uk/clipred01c.htm Published
online May 2015
Abstract
A New Method for Medium Term Temperature (summer
season) Anomaly Forecasting and Climate Prediction is introduced based solely on a polynomial
data file linked QBO and temperature behaviour in North Wales since 1948. The key is in choosing two months to
establish QBO rate of change, here the preceding January and April are employed. Complex climate modelling is NOT required because the qbo
via its tele-connections is a complex and multivariate indicator of drivers
from above and below including natural drivers such as solar and volcanism in
addition to anthropogenic drivers such as greenhouse gases, wind farms, power
systems, radio transmitters and aviation.
Taking a naďve approach to results
leads to a perceived warming of about .22 C per decade which is
consistent with the IPCC’s most recent estimates. However, taking a more detailed analysis
leads to a cyclic understanding of recent warming and cooling in terms of solar
and volcanic activity. The
infamous ‘hockey stick’ period of warming may have been created by a coincidental
combination of a fall in volcanism and a rise in solar activity the likes of
which may only be seen either once every
792 years ; 2640 years or 5192 years based on combinations of the three
known volcanic, seismic and Gleissberg cycles. The first two of these take us back to
the medieval warm period and Roman warm period consecutively. At least in North Wales it would appear we
have now entered a cooling phase which could last several decades.
4. Global anthropogenic temperature change
correlates better with total energy in
world’s electricity grids than with total energy use. Alternative title: EEP (Energetic Particle Precipitation) the
key to climate change By Dr Chris
Barnes, Bangor Scientific and Educational Consultants
email manager@bsec-wales.co.uk First
published online without references
August 2017. http://www.drchrisbarnes.co.uk/eep.htm
5.
Putting
the Meteors back in Meteorology by Dr Chris Barnes, Bangor Scientific and
Educational Consultants, E-mail doctor.barnes@yahoo.co.uk
Abstract
The combined
effects of meteor showers, solar flux and GCR on the interdecadal climate in
the UK. At lease recently, these are
seen to be in control with no evidence of warming. The UK temperature anomaly can be accounted
for by a simple algorithm.
1.
In the UK in the inter-decadal period 2005-2011 annual rainfall is most
strongly correlated with cosmic ray flux. The much higher correlation
coefficient for Cosmic Rays is supportive of the notion of a stronger, real
physical effect and is also supportive of the work of Svensmark. Alternatively, and/or additionally
meteoric debris does provide the nucleation material for rainfall, but cosmic
rays provide the correct atmospheric electricity conditions, see Tinsley (2000)
and Carslaw and Harrison (2002).
2.
Annual temperatures can be correlated with a simple linear algorithm
(SFCM) involving cosmic ray flux (C), solar flux (SF) and radio meteor flux (M)
according to equation (1).
Delta Temp = -.707 + 2.916* SFCM
…………………………………………………………………(1)
Where SFCM =
{(SF-C) +M} P<.023 so
statistically significant
6.
Simple solar system measurements show the irrelevance of Carbon Dioxide
to present day earth temperature. http://drchrisbarnes.co.uk/Solarsys.htm
Abstract
AGW and
AGW politics is briefly discussed.
Scientists with alternative and additional theories to AGW are named and
their theories discussed and summarized. The author’s own previous work which also shows CO2 is not needed to
account for recent UK temperatures is discussed. Other second order effects stronger than CO2
are discussed. In the rest of this work
a treatment using simple solar system
measurements to show the irrelevance of CO2 to excess planetary temperature is
developed. The work while in support of
Nikolov and Zeller does not directly prove their
hypothesis, but it does show the irrelevance of CO2. The conclusion reached is that EITHER: Nikolov and Zeller are correct or that CO2 warming
effect requires concentrations much, much higher than those
we have a present. A small second order
effect exists as the atmospheric composition approaches very high carbon dioxide concentrations. Given the exponential nature of the increase
it is estimated that an atmospheric composition of 13.5% CO2 would cause some
.8C of warming. Extrapolating to
present levels of CO2 i.e. .0415% yields
some 3 milli degrees Kelvin of warming i.e. totally insignificant and about an
order of magnitude less than my previous estimates! CO2 could still be a ‘greenhouse’ gas of
very minor, indeed irrelevant proportions
but given our real and mobile atmosphere with convection as the main means of
shifting heat we need not worry about CO2 induced warming in the foreseeable
future. The author’s other personal concerns regarding climate warming,
especially the cirrus cloud caused by aviation and the effects of power systems
on clouds are re-iterated.
Additionally, however and as an offset, the author’s previous work is
suggestive that we are entering a period of natural cooling for which we should
all be prepared.